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Zloty seen in EUR/PLN 4.06-4.09 range, T-bonds may weaken after auction

January 03, 2013 | Cbonds

Zloty seen in EUR/PLN 4.06-4.09 range, T-bonds may weaken after auction

Poland's zloty is seen likely to move in EUR 4.06-4.09 range expected to be affected by global factors until the rate council sitting next week, while the T-bonds may weaken, burdened by additional supply offered at the auction, local players told PAP. 

"The zloty is at yesterday's afternoon levels. It will be moving in EUR 4.06-4.09 range," Kredyt Bank FX dealer Robert Kesicki told PAP. "After yesterday's sentiment improvement following an American Congress agreement allowing to avoid fiscal cliff, there came a correction and the zloty returned to previous levels."

"The zloty will be under the influence of global factors by the time of next week's decision on rates [in Poland]," Kesicki added. "Only then we will see in which direction the zloty will go."

The Monetary Policy Council is meeting next week on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Polish T-bonds open at Wednesday close levels in the wait for the auction with the additional supply having the potential of dragging prices down, BNP Paribas Bank Polska bond portfolio manager Blazej Wajszczuk told PAP.

"The auction is the key factor today," Wajszczuk indicated. "I assume that the Finance Ministry would rather sell more than less, so the additional supply may burden the market."

Poland will offer between PLN 3.0 to 5.0 bln in 10Y fixed-rate paper DS1023 and 20Y fixed-rate paper WS0429 in a uniform price auction slated for Thursday, the Finance Ministry previously informed.

" . . . it would be good if the market absorbed the auction and stayed at present levels," he pointed out, adding however that "one should rather not expect rising prices."

Investors are also waiting for the next week's MPC sitting.

"In my opinion the MPC will cut rates by 25 bps and announce further easing," Wajszczuk expects. "A 50 bps cut followed by an interruption in the cut cycle would be very bad news for the market."



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