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Cbonds Consensus, Russia 2016 

The poll was held on Jan 11 - Feb 1.Publication date: February, 9, 2016
World EconomyAverage forecastMedianActual
  Global GDP, %
actual value - IMF forecast (Oct 2015) per 2015Y
3.13.13.1
  US GDP, %
actual value - forecast of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics per 2015Y
2.42.62.4
  Eurozone GDP, %
actual value - forecast of the Eurostat in Sept2015Y
1.61.61.5
  Consumer Prices (CPI, USA) (year-to-date), %
actual value - forecast of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics per 2015Y
1.71.80.7
  Consumer Prices (CPI, Eurozone) (year-to-date), %
actual value - forecast of the Eurostat in Jan2016Y
10.90.2
  Brent Crude Oil
actual value - price ($) in the period from Jan 11 till Jan 12 2016Y
434032
  Gold (USD/ounce, London)
actual value - price in the period from Jan 11 till Jan 12 2016Y
108711001085
  S&P 500
actual value - price in the period from Jan 11 till Jan 12 2016Y
199519401915
  EUR/USD
actual value - price in the period from Jan 11 till Jan 12 2016Y
1.11.051.09
the Russian Federation EconomyAverage forecastMedianActual
  Real GDP Indicator (YoY, Quarterly), %
actual value - forecast, Jan2016Y
-0.6-0.8-3.9
  Industrial production, %
actual value - Rosstat
0.30.6-3.4
  Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (year-to-date), %
actual value - Rosstat
8.48.512.9
  Unemployment, %
actual value - Ministry of Labour forecast for 2015Y
5.95.86
  Current account, % of GDP
4.645
  Trade balance, % of GDP
9.610.712
  Budget deficit, % of GDP
-3.7-3.9-5.1
  Foreign capital inflow/ outflow, % of GDP
-1-3.8-4.4
  Gross external debt, $ billion
Central Bank
479468515
  Exchange reserves, $ billion
Central Bank
390390368
  USD/RUB
market rate
69.870.976.03
  EUR/RUB
market rate
73.673.882.52
  Dual-currency basket/RUB
70.870.979
  RTSI
actual value - Jan, 11, 2016Y
890900700
Interest rates, %Average forecastMedianActual
  Federal funds rate, %
0.25 - 0.5
110.5
  ECB refinancing rate, %
0.050.050.05
  Key rate of CBR, %
9911
  Deposit rate, Overnight, %
Central Bank
7712
  3M LIBOR USD
Cbonds
1.31.20.62
  3M EURIBOR
Cbonds
-0.1-0.1-0.16
  MOSPRIME 3M
Central Bank
9.1911.8
Benchmark yield, %Average forecastMedianActual
  UST 10Y YTM
Cbonds
2.72.752.17
  Bund 10Y YTM
Cbonds
0.80.850.54
  Russia-2030 YTM, %
Cbonds
4.34.352.89
  OFZ YTM 3Y, %
Cbonds-GBI RU 1-3Y
8.38.3510.45
  OFZ YTM 5Y, %
Cbonds-GBI RU 3-5Y
8.58.2510.25
  Muni YTM (3Y), %
Cbonds-Muni
9.49.3511.48
  Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), %
IFX-Cbonds
9.59.59.05
 
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