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Cbonds Consensus, Russia 2015 

The poll was held on 10-31.12.2014. Number of respondents: 16. Publication date: 26.01.2015
World economyAverage forecastMedianActual
  Global GDP, %
2014, 3rd quarter data
2.842.82.76
  US GDP, %
2014, 3rd quarter data
2.8932.7
  Eurozone GDP, %
2014, 3rd quarter data
1.081.050.8
  Consumer Prices (CPI, USA) (year-to-date), %
1.51.50.76
  Consumer Prices (CPI, Eurozone) (year-to-date), %
0.570.45-0.15
  Brent Crude Oil
65.0665.557.54
  Gold (USD/ounce, London)
125412501206
  S&P 500
2225.8322002058.9
  EUR/USD (ECB)
1.181.21.21
Russian economyAverage forecastMedianActual
  Real GDP Indicator (YoY, Quarterly), %
2014, 3rd quarter data
-2.77-2.450.7
  Industrial production, %
-1.53-11.7
  Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (year-to-date), %
10.219.611.4
  Unemployment, %
6.1865.2
  Current account, % of GDP
2014, 3rd quarter data
3.312.91.37
  Trade balance, % of GDP
2014, 3rd quarter data
6.856.451.08
  Budget deficit, % of GDP
-3.05-0.85-0.5
  Foreign capital inflow/ outflow, % of GDP
-5.23-6-12.1
  Gross external debt, $ billion
515535599.5
  Exchange reserves, $ billion
339.38350385.46
  USD/RUB
57.285856.26
  EUR/RUB (ECB)
67.286668.34
  Dual-currency basket/RUB
62.636261.7
  RTSI
928.33980790.71
Key interest rates, %Average forecastMedianActual
  Federal funds rate, %
0.610.50.25
  ECB refinancing rate, %
0.120.10.05
  Key rate of CBR, %
11.911.7517
  Deposit rate, O/N, %
13.671516
  3M LIBOR USD
0.470.40.26
  3M EURIBOR
0.060.050.08
  MOSPRIME 3M
17.61523.77
Benchmark yield, %Average forecastMedianActual
  UST 10Y YTM
2.472.52.17
  Bund 10Y YTM
0.810.60.54
  Russia-2030 YTM, %
5.695.755.1
  OFZ YTM 3Y, %
Cbonds-GBI RU 1-3Y
1312.514.76
  OFZ YTM 5Y, %
Cbonds-GBI RU 5Y
12.8812.2513.53
  Muni YTM (3Y), %
Cbonds-Muni
13.51315.32
  Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), %
IFX-Cbonds
14.331515.65
  Domestic corporate bonds (2nd tier), YTM (2Y), %
Cbonds-CBI RU BB
15.8315.517
  Domestic corporate bonds (3d tier), YTM (1Y), %
Cbonds-CBI RU B
19.3318.521.61
 
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